Equity world : Market Beware The Fed move

Equity world-Plan of the Central Bank rate hike United States is predicted to be a continued sentiment for global financial markets and also Indonesia after Donald Trump officially became the 45th president in the country with the strongest economy in the world.

Because the probability of interest rate hikes the Fed in December fell to 47% on Wednesday (9/11) after reaching 82% on Tuesday (8/11). This is caused by increased volatility in global financial markets.

This situation implies that markets see a chance the US central bank to again postpone monetary tightening next month. The predictions are based on the track record of the Fed policy this year, in which the monetary authority of Uncle Sam very wary of any sentiment in the domestic and global economy.

"Victory Trump has brought volatility in both the global and domestic markets. If the market does not go steady until December, I anticipated the Fed would again postpone monetary tightening, "said George Goncalves, head of US market research at Nomura Holdings Inc., Wednesday (9/11).

However, some observers saw the Fed will keep raising interest rates this year. Moreover, the delay monetary tightening will only complicate the central bank in formulating policy in the future. Given, Trump promised to overhaul US economic policy that has prevailed over the years.

On the other hand, the strengthening of a boost from the latest economic data, such as employment growth continues to strengthen and inflation close to the target, making the Fed more depressed to raise the benchmark interest rate from the current level of 0.25% -0.50%.

As is known, the US Labor Department last week showed that the level of wages rose in October from the same period last year and became the largest since 2009. Similarly, Uncle Sam also managed to absorb 161,000 new workers.

Steven Englander, chief currency strategist Global Citigroup Inc. said that if the authorities led by Janet Yellen is again failing to raise its interest rates this year, then the credibility of the Fed will be damaged.

Meanwhile, the delay in monetary tightening due to the presidential elections will also raise public suspicions will the independence of the Fed. Earlier, Yellen accused of failing to maintain an independent, for being too soft on US government policy.

 Read : Equity world : GOLD PRICE 10 NOVEMBER Got Jumped When US presidential election Yesterday, Listen Movement Today

EXCHANGE RUPIAHS

Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah against the blow will end this year if the Fed officially raise its benchmark interest rate at the end of the year. Senior Economist Eric Sugandi predicts Kenta Intitute, financial market volatility that occurred after the election of Trump will only run for the next two days.

The weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar on Wednesday (9/11) of 0.33% to Rp13.127, is not expected to run long. "This may be a problem of perception of the market, the next two days would abate. But the pressure on the rupiah will return ahead of the FOMC, and will probably be the last challenge for the rupiah this year, "he said.

He was optimistic that the Fed will keep raising its benchmark interest rate in December, given the increasingly strong economic fundamentals of Uncle Sam. However, continued pressure from the Fed to the country or the anticipated money would not be too big.

According to him, it is caused by strong economic funamental Indonesia, mainly supported by repatriation flows from a tax amnesty policy. The amount of repatriation inflows, it will be able to compensate for the pressure on the Fed and corporate debt payment cycle at the end of years.He predict, the rupiah against the US dollar is not going to skyrocket more than Rp13.300.

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